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ALS theories summary
Olly
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 5:19:47 AM

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Thanks ENV great work but I repectfully disagree with your statement:
''To balance Dave above, the medical community is about medicine for the majority. A few outliers is not statistically significant enough to chase, especially in such a highly variable condition as ALS.''

All the really big major discoveries both in science and medicine were by those who went out on a limb and followed those outliers.
The history of medicine is littered with examples and the inertia of the medical profession to new ideas is almost legendary.
Just look at stomach ulcers for an example.
The use of statistic in medicine is only one tool (over used in my opinion ) and that sometimes throws the baby out with the bathwater.

Anyhow keep up the good work that is very appreciated and this is only my own point of view.

Into the heart, an air that kills, from yon far country blows.
What are those blue remembered hills, what sphires what farms are those.
That is the land of lost content,I see it shining plain,
The happy highways where I went and cannot come again
RL Schafferr
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 10:23:42 AM

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Beautiful poem , olly.. And oh so true.
jchexpress
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 10:28:19 AM
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Ron... Not to go off topic, but did you get anywhere with them at the clinic about NP001 trial?
RL Schafferr
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 10:51:15 AM

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Well I did a bit , Jason. My dr. Said he is fighting for open parameters on all trials and he is against placebos being used at all. Said he is fighting for everyone to get true medicine in all trials, but in small to large doses. But at least everyone would get the real thing.
He knows McGrath well and will try all he can.
He said he would try wf10 . And he said the reason they used 3 yr. From onset is early insets do better on the np001 . He said older insets don't do as well on chlorites as the disease burns out in us and the damage is almost unreversable . But the good news is us oldies almost outlives the disease.
I haven't progressed at all in 6 months. No difference in my FRS. And I don't take a damn thing.
He will help me all he can . I don't know what that means but I intend to push his ass all I can if I decide to try wf10 right now , I'm undecided. Not on what he said, cause I believe all Neuros are full of ****, but on my own reasons.
I do believe oldies won't do as well on the drug.
E monitors this forum.
I did piss all them off. Wouldn't talk to half the Drs. I picked who I thought I needed. Hell with rest .
I'm to the point where it's about me now, not their silly agendas.
jchexpress
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 11:09:06 AM
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With a drug like NP001, they should cease all placebos at this point. It is obvious the drug shows some efficacy. Hell even if it is only symptomatic (which I believe is not the case), it would be good for all. Placebos = Death in ALS and other terminal illnesses. No other way to put it. Maybe they should stop using placebos in only fatal illnesses. I honestly don't understand it. They already know the median decline rate and survival in ALS. Why can't they base the clinical outcome of a trial on those numbers rather than knowingly make more human guinea pigs die? Seems cruel.
RL Schafferr
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 11:13:41 AM

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I've a feeling old Eric is about to correct you on placebos. But I believe he's full of **** too, on that subject.
I agree. Placebos should not be used on terminal patients in any trial.
jchexpress
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 11:29:40 AM
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Well I'd really like to know his argument for placebos in a terminal illness. To me, it's quite simple. We already know the average physical decline and survival time in ALS. Why would using human guinea pigs yield a better measurement result than simply measuring the clinical trial outcome against what we already know to be true (average physical decline and survival in ALS)? If the trial drug does more harm than good, then we should see a faster physical decline and/or shorter survival than average. If the trial drug is effective, we should see a longer physical decline and/or survival than average.

I don't doubt Eric's intelligence, but I sure would like to hear an explanation as to why placebos are so desperately needed in terminal illnesses?

RL Schafferr
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 12:17:08 PM

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One thing... If 50 people was getting the real drug in stead of 15 getting nothing , and 15 getting a half dose and the rest getting the full dose , we'd know a hell of a lot more . Why are they even having a safety trial with np001 ? It's the same as wf10 other then a lower ph . It's been around since the 80 s. Good old FDA at work?
ENV
Posted: Saturday, July 09, 2011 8:47:43 PM

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In the case of ALS the measurements are so pathetically crude that without a placebo in the instant trial you could lose some potential evidence of efficacy or see efficacy where none exists (giving us another Riluzole). ALS is so highly variable even within individuals and we know so little about it that historical controls are fraught with error. It totally sucks but it's the current situation.

Having said that, in some of the newer trials we may finally get the biomarkers we so desperately need. That would enable use of historical controls, no need for placebo, and dramatically shorten trials which would reduce costs and lead to more trials.

In the case of NP001 I agree with Jason. I think it could be opened up. I think it is just a little too early for that. Maybe in a few more months? I only have the same leaked stories and no data on biomarkers whatsoever so I cannot really say my belief is based on anything but hope. I very much want access but am too "old" and on a vent.

The safety trial with NP001 was in relation to ALS, for which no data previously existed. Usually safety trials are done in healthy volunteers. So the P1 in this case was really a P1-2. I agree with Ron two posts up. Us old-timers won't see as dramatic or quick benefit because we have more totally dead neurons (requiring replacement) and neurons with more axonal damage which take a longer time to regrow (assuming that is even possible past a certain point, if at all).

--
ENV
= Le meilleur vin, avec les meilleurs amis. =
ENV
Posted: Saturday, July 16, 2011 11:34:09 PM

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Dave J
Posted: Sunday, July 17, 2011 1:17:08 AM

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Thanks, ENV. One of the best things I've recently seen written about ALS, but unfortunately in .pdf form which makes it inconvenient to post the text here. I encourage anyone seriously interested in theories of ALS to click on the link and read it.

There are numerous grounds on which the publication could be criticized as incomplete, but that's as good as it gets for now. For now, there is no comprehensive and well-substantiated theory of ALS, and probably won't be one within most of our lifetimes.

--Dave J.
avoutersterp
Posted: Sunday, July 17, 2011 3:36:32 AM

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jchexpress wrote:
With a drug like NP001, they should cease all placebos at this point. It is obvious the drug shows some efficacy. Hell even if it is only symptomatic (which I believe is not the case), it would be good for all. Placebos = Death in ALS and other terminal illnesses. No other way to put it. Maybe they should stop using placebos in only fatal illnesses. I honestly don't understand it. They already know the median decline rate and survival in ALS. Why can't they base the clinical outcome of a trial on those numbers rather than knowingly make more human guinea pigs die? Seems cruel.


I do agree but the median of a select trial group is different from the median of the complete ALS population



Arthur van Outersterp
dx PLS 1999
rknt50b
Posted: Sunday, July 17, 2011 8:00:34 AM
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In my opinion all of the ethical and scientific decisions regarding NP001 are a moot point unless the seats in that trial are filled.

It amazes me that there is not an effective system to get the information to patients who may qualify and have an interest. Patients have many inconsistent places to go search for trials and I think that organizations assume that the neurologist is the logical person to help the patient filter through the possibilities to find the best fit for the patient. It's not happening.

So... if anyone is networked with any patients who may be within the 36-month window, please pass info regarding the NP001 trial along for consideration. Once the trial is full, then the ethical and scientific discussions over placebo and access to drug will have a lot more substance imo.

My few cents fwtw.

p.s.
How difficult would it be for our major ALS organizations to use their considerable reach to patients to say something like, "There are some extremely interesting Phase II and Phase III trials being run nationally by respected ALS neurologists that are currently recruiting patients. Travel assistance may be available for some. Eligibility options may longer from onset than you have seen in the past, but time is of the essence. See www.clinicaltrials.gov . Contact us for more information or if you have questions." ? Afraid the phone might ring off the hook? That would certainly be proof that there is an unmet need for information.



RobGoldstein
Posted: Monday, July 18, 2011 9:44:21 AM

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rknt50b,

Thanks for the post on this general and important topic. IMHO it is a myth that clinical trial enrollment in ALS isn't a problem. The dissemination of information to neurologists and PALS is lacking indeed. This is part of the mantra that we both spread through all our activities as well as attempt to help improve. For instance, we list all clinical trials equally on our website. We published notification to every PI of each of those trials via email as well as written letter asking them to provide any corrections and updates to us when they had them. We also sent a notification of the presence of this comprehensive list to each of the ALS clinics in the United States. Its not enough and we need to keep hammering away

(my evil marketing manual tells me that we have to send around 6-8 messages to each person to actually get some saturation through the noise, but I'm not sure I am willing to spend tens of thousands of research dollars on mailers. Seems to me that the people that execute clinical trials should be required to have set aside substantially more funding for awareness and education regarding those trials than they currently do rather than simply relying on "advocacy groups."...just that's more of a personal thought than an official standpoint of ALS TDI. It would also help if the FDA would provide some guidance to biotech/pharmas operating clinical trials on how they can use social media as part of a comprehensive communication strategy - currently there are no such guidelines so there is a huge missed opportunity there in my opinion for the regulators to leverage emerging communication streams to hasten drug development).

Sorry for the multi-topic rant!

-Rob
Dave J
Posted: Sunday, January 01, 2012 4:18:33 AM

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Just bumping Aketri's thread, sure miss that guy!

The recent excitement over chlorite therapy has made it difficult for any other subject to be gotten onto the table and kept there for a while. Same thing happened during the lithium excitement. At least this time it's different from lithium-- patients we know by name, providing anecdotal data that passes even the Ron Test (if Ron says it works, that one data point has a higher level of confidence than Packard Center will ever have, no matter how creative their statisticians get).

The nature of ALS is that there aren't many old-timers, it's mostly newbies. So for the benefit of the newbies I'd like to put a bit of perspective on the state of the art of theories of ALS and the therapeutic options that those theories imply.

1. Chlorite therapy is where the action is at right now because of the advent of do-it-yourself oral sodium chlorite therapy (OSC)together with credible reports of benefit. The prevailing theory as to why it works (to the extent that it does) has to do with inhibiting reactive gliosis. There is debate over how it does that, or even if that's how it actually works.

2. Prior to the excitement over OSC there were (and are) credible reports of self-treatment achieving varying degrees of success. There was, however, nothing like the present situation with OSC-- multiple patients doing more or less the same thing "in public" and some of them reporting rather quick benefits. So there was not much to get excited about.

3. ALS is not one disease: nobody knows how many diseases it really is, but just in the 10% familial group several have been identified. We don't know where this OSC thing is going to lead, but it is safe to say that many patients will receive no benefit from it, and among those who do benefit the degree of benefit will be variable. Therefore, we can't let interest in other therapeutics fall off the table. We still need alternatives.

4. Among credible reports of successful self-treaters, that of JoelC stands out as unique in that he wasn't doing a "c0cktail", he was doing IV glutathione. Some others have tried IV glutathione without any apparent benefit, but it's my understanding that JoelC based his decision to go that route based on some reports of success in Germany so he evidently wasn't alone. The conventional thinking is that glutathione support protects against excitotoxicity by mopping up reactive oxygen inside the neuron, but it's entirely possible that glutathione could be beneficial for reasons entirely unrelated to antioxidant activity in the neuron. Glutamine is a well known immune modulator: glutathione is probably an immune modulator as well. Maybe it helps to inhibit reactive gliosis.

5. One of the facts that's emerged from PLM data, is that antioxidant therapy to protect the neuron, as a standalone strategy, is probably almost but not quite useless. Adding vitamins to the mix, same story. Those few patients who report success with c0cktail therapies almost always include curcumin (an anti-inflammatory), glutathione support (NAC especially), calcium channel inhibition (magnesium, taurine, betaine/TMG), and mitochondrial support (carnitine,lipoic acid). The degree of success reported varies, and many patients who have done similar things have reported no obvious benefit. The bottom line I read from conventional "natural medicine" c0cktail therapies is that there is a "make sure you hit all the bases" approach that has shown merit. The difference between that and OSC is probably not in efficacy, but in the nature of the evidence of the efficacy. Back in the bad old days, it was dogma that nothing works, and any patient who reported success learned in a hurry how thick their skin was or wasn't. It mostly wasn't: the worst attackers were other patients who didn't know crap. Because I hung in there despite the attacks, other patients who had experienced some degree of self-treatment success but who had no stomach for the abuse they'd get on forums, contacted me through PM. That's how I can say with confidence that my own success was not an anomaly, it was part of a pattern. The pattern was kicked out of public view, therefore I can't prove it to anyone, you can either take my word for it, or dismiss it.

6. If you have access to prescription drugs either through access to a sympathetic medical doctor or through other means, you've got some interesting options for c0cktail formulation available, for example memantine for calcium channel inhibition and valproate for inhibition of apoptosis. Just remember that unless you think you've got a one-drug wonder, take a c0cktail approach, dealing with as much as possible of what goes wrong in ALS.

* * * * * * *

BACK TO THE "REACTIVE GLIOSIS" THEORY OF ALS, my take on it (most of this is for newbies)

1. It's been well established that it's processes that go on outside the motor neuron drive a neurodegenerative cascade that leads to death of motor neurons. One of the most common stories in ALS is "a year ago I was running marathons", which indicates a before and an after. Before, no neurodegenerative cascade: after, relentless progression with occasional symptomatic plateaus which probably don't represent temporary remission of degenerative processes.

2. There is widespread belief (which I subscribe to) that the basic nature of the neurodegenerative cascade is that glial cells are trying to get rid of neurons that the glial cells think are diseased and need to be eliminated. The neurons of course then become more diseased, releasing molecular signals that further aggravate the attack. It's a self-sustaining vicious cycle.

3. ALS is actually many diseases, but as a generality we can say that it's a disease that tends to hit people in their 50's and 60's, even in the case of most familial ALS where the molecular defect that destined the patient to ALS was present from the moment of conception. So clearly, the molecular defect itself does not cause ALS: it sets the stage for a condition of imbalance in "something" to happen. The body exhibits the property of "homeostasis"-- that is, the tendency to stability about a satisfactory operating point of temperature, fluid balance, oxygen saturation, etc. With aging, the body changes and with it its ability to compensate changes. If you've got a substantial risk factor for ALS, the data suggest that somewhere between the ages of 45 and 70 your body will lose the ability to compensate it, and the neurodegenerative cascade is no longer inhibited from happening.

4. Notice that the foregoing interpretation of the "age factor" suggests that there is something shared in common between most sporadic and familial forms of ALS. Either something about the degenerative cascade that's normally inhibited that in ALS patients-to-be is missing an essential inhibition factor; or, a factor conducive to the degenerative cascade which is increased in ALS patients-to-be leading to failure of compensation.

5. From the perspective of someone who has already been diagnosed with ALS (and therefore no preventative measures can be taken), this looks pretty grim. Therapy has to consist of more than simply restoring a previously achieved imbalance, it also has to stop a new self-sustaining process that wasn't happening before. The first order of business is to attack the degenerative cascade at its weakest point, which is what chlorite therapy seems to do when it works. The "natural c0cktail" approach presupposes no knowledge of the weakest link, but simply attacks the whole chain with whatever it can, and hopes for the best. NOTE: of the stuff that's presently in clinical trial, virtually none of it even pretends that it may have the capacity to stop the neurodegenerative cascade even though the people who have the designed the trials understand this stuff and could be targeting a lot of the neurodegenerative cascade. I'll save the rant about wholesale medical malpractice against ALS patients for some other post.

6. What arguably makes it not so grim, is that enough is known nowadays that a rational treatment plan can be formulated. The problem is not that nothing can be done, the problem is that there are so many choices and you ain't got much time to make those choices and then do them.

7. There is a difference between stopping the neurodegenerative cascade process, and curing ALS. According to the theory of ALS I've presented above, if you stop the neurodegenerative cascade and then halt treatment, the imbalance that was there in the first place will re-initiate the cascade. So an optimum therapeutic regime should first attack as thoroughly as possible the cascade, and also fix the imbalance that led to the cascade in the first place. This latter part of therapy is equivalent to preventive therapy, the sort of thing that might be done in a fALS patient prior to onset hoping to delay onset for say another 50 years.

--Dave J.
De Laval
Posted: Sunday, January 01, 2012 8:49:44 AM
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Dave.
You're right there are too many unknown factors that may cause ALS.
The old guard thought supplements could help but in vain.
Chlorite could slow the disease, at least that's the prognosis of Neuraltus.
I own along with the OSC experiment because we have nothing to lose and I feel that no matter how small a noticeable improvement.
Whether this continues is the big question, and your prognosis is that it takes 50 years before a drug is found i think you has it right .

Jan
millstones
Posted: Sunday, January 01, 2012 11:18:11 AM

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Dave,
It reads like a good detective novel that provides all the clues but no answer. I am quite willing to accept your theories but seem to recollect from your postings that you were slowing things down with your cocktail approach but things are speeding up again. My wife is one who has been taking OSC since early October and I would say with some success with slowing progression and some recovery and increased strength. Are you saying that if we were to adopt your cocktail to supplement the OSC then we could expect some recovery of NMJ connection that otherwise will not happen? My wife started with her symptoms 2 years ago( almost to the day)and is now quadreplegic ,unable to speak and takes liquids and solid equivalents via a peg tube. She breaths without pacers or bipap.

John
Dave J
Posted: Sunday, January 01, 2012 3:18:12 PM

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Jan (De Laval), a misunderstanding about the "50 years". What I mean, is that a drug that prevents development of the ALS degenerative cascade doesn't have to prevent it absolutely, merely delaying it until you die of something else is all it has to do. Delaying even a year would be helpful, but it would be almost impossible to prove that a drug could dely onset by a year. Ten years would not be difficult to prove from a statistical point of view, but that kind of long-term research is something it's doubtful any research money could be found to pay for. Our best hope on that score is probably anecdotal reports from fALS patients experimenting on themselves.

John (millstones), I have no way of knowing what the results would be if your wife were to do a "c0cktail therapy". Might see benefit and might not. Those who have been researching the biology of OSC have expressed some concern that the antioxidants (in particular) of a c0cktail therapy might interfere with the OSC therapy. So in my not-very-well-informed opinion (at this point nobody's got a well informed opinion) a person on OSC should probably not embark on a simultaneous c0cktail therapy, but wait until it's possible to stop the OSC therapy if that ever happens. The outcome of the NP001 trial will probably provide clues as to whether OSC achieves enough cumulative repair & stabilization that it's possible to stop at least for a while.

Regarding my own case, symptoms began early 2005 with rapid progression of both upper and lower neuron symptoms, lower limb onset, ambulating with crutches, pretty much a textbook typical case of ALS. Diagnosed July, began c0cktail therapy August. Meanwhile was getting respiratory involvement so switched to another neurologist with better EMG access for another evaluation: in October he preferred to call it PLS because the symptoms were upper motor neuron dominant and because lower motor neuron involvement seemed to have stabilized. At this same time I moved to a downstairs apartment because making it up the stairs was almost impossible on some days, and anyway I figured I would soon need wheelchair access plus a second bedroom for a caretaker (presumably my daughter). However, during Nov-Dec things began turning around rapidly and by January I no longer needed the crutches and was able to go mountain hiking on my own. During spring 2006 I re-learned maneuvers like running and kicking and jumping, to the point where there was essentially no impairment, I was pretty much fully recovered other than slight occasional spasticity, and right leg being a little weaker than before due to about -2 cm circumference atrophy. Since 2006 there's been slowly increasing spasticity and occasional fasciculations, but no additional atrophy, and still no need for crutches. No upper motor neuron symptoms other than a vagus reflex problem that began several years before the ALS and is probably unrelated.

Several years ago I received an email from a fellow whose experience was very similar to mine, similar symptoms and had done a very similar c0cktail (a couple years before me). Like me, he experienced a near-total recovery. Unlike me, he was being seen by an ALS clinic, and the neurologists there weren't too happy about what had happened. (My neurologists took me seriously and didn't discourage me.) He was fine for two years, and then it came back relentlessly and he couldn't find anything to slow it down. So the same could happen to me at any time, it just hasn't happened yet. So far it's bought me 5 years of normal life.

--Dave J.

millstones
Posted: Sunday, January 01, 2012 4:13:19 PM

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DaveJ,
Thanks for that. You are one very lucky guy.
Lets hope it stays away.

John
Dave J
Posted: Friday, January 06, 2012 11:33:10 PM

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Thanks to "guitar" for this link in the vasopressin thread:

http://www.nature.com/scibx/journal/v4/n21/full/scibx.2011.587.html

Losartan suppresses TGFB, inhibiting muscle degeneration.

Please note what the article says about an inflammatory process which is of a healing type, which however causes damage if it gets stuck.

David Hicks and/or Nemesis, does that clue substantiate either of your theories on the nature of ALS? (As I've been saying for a long time now, I believe you two guys are talking about the same thing but from different directions, and that the theory of the "neurodegenerative cascade" is yet another version of the same story.)

Impatiently awaiting y'all's reply,

--Dave J.

PS: the above link addresses the issue of muscle degeneration, and implicitly the theory that failure of the NMJ is an essential part of ALS (or at least the lower motor neuron part of it). Losartan and perhaps its analogs such as olmesartan (sp?) may turn out to be valuable ALS therapeutics.

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